ANALYSIS OF THE IMPACT OF THE SITUATION IN THE WORLD ON «FORTEBANK» JSC

In an effort to curb the spread of the virus around the world, something hitherto unheard of has been attempted – shutting down economies in different regions, in some cases twice, leaving tens of millions of people out of work and millions of businesses shut down. These people and companies are customers of banks, and as a result of their inability to meet their obligations to banks, the number of defaults may increase dramatically.

Unlike many past shocks, the COVID-19 crisis is not just a banking crisis, but a real economy crisis. Banks will undoubtedly suffer as credit losses cascade through the economy and demand for banking services falls. But the reasons for the problems are not in the banks. The global banking system entered the crisis with a good capitalization and much more stable than it was 12 years ago.

The good news is that the banking sector is sufficiently capitalized to withstand the coming shock.

In 2020, the financial sector of Kazakhstan developed under the influence of a double shock: oil prices fell and, as expected, as a result of the restrictive measures imposed in connection with the coronavirus pandemic, business activity decreased.

This year is projected to be the most significant drop in economic growth in the last 20 years. According to the forecasts of the Ministry of National Economy of the Republic of Kazakhstan, the decline in GDP for the year will be - 2.1%, and according to the IMF – at the level of - 2.7%. It is obvious that the determining factor in the development trajectory of the country's financial sector this year and next is the scenario of the spread and the possibility of overcoming the pandemic, its impact on business activity and market relations.

The banking sector approached the beginning of the pandemic with a large capital stock, as evidenced by the independent asset quality assessment (AQR) for the 14 largest banks, which account for 87% of the banking system's assets.

In the group-14 highly qualified large banks are included in JSC" ForteBank". The main financial indicators of banks during the pandemic period did not decrease, income received from ATMs, as well as Rosli.

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