MODELING THE EXCHANGE RATE OF THE KAZAKHSTANI TENGE

The article discusses the role of key factors in the exchange rate formation of the Kazakhstani tenge. The study analyzes which factors are key for short-term and long-term forecasting. A linear regression model is built, with the STEP function on quarterly data from 01/01/2005 to 06/01/2021 using free statistical software with open source access and the R programming language. The STEP function allows you to choose the best model from one dependent and 14 independent variables. An analysis of domestic and foreign studies is carried out to identify the degree of relationship (positive or negative) between the key factors affecting the nominal exchange rate of the national currency of Kazakhstan. The relationship between the nominal exchange rate and direct or indirect state intervention is investigated. Access to data is a key issue for qualitative forecasting of the nominal exchange rate of the Kazakhstani tenge and affects the predictive power of the model. As recommendations, it is proposed to provide economic agents with KASE data. In conclusion, conclusions are drawn about the presence of objective prerequisites that impede the transition to a free-floating exchange rate in Kazakhstan.

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